Newsletter

I’d like to wish you a Merry Christmas if you’re celebrating. Either way, I hope you have a good time with your loved ones.

US inflation was “only” at 7.1%. Seems like the CPI numbers were leaked. It’s worth keeping an eye on Real Estate. EIA forecasts solar power to be no. 1 by 2027. Vanguard is getting out of climate alliance.

Non-traded REITs see a massive rise in redemptions. Blackstone’s US$69bn BREIT limits redemptions. Wait, what? Wasn’t EV the way to stay ESG compliant? Indian stocks are going strong. THE TWITTER FILES.

Earnings recession to come. US housing prices take a massive hit. Chinese protest in the streets. Dutch farmers are not only getting killed by ESG. The Green leaders are burning tons of coal.

WACC for S&P 500 firms is up by 50%. US housing prices are falling. Mortgage appraisals in the US are positively skewed. Beyond meat, more like beyond profit. We’re not yet at the bottom of this bear.

Borrowing to keep up with the Joneses. The US gov’t has also borrowed to keep up. Rich nations continue to pay for others to reduce coal. ESG rating firm scores a fraud above fossil fuels. When you spot a virtue signaller, run!

One of the largest crypto exchanges, FTX, goes bust. FTX founder got Sequoia funding by saying, “you can buy a banana”. Sequoia told its investors, “we are in the business of taking risk”. Creative destruction wipes out bad businesses. Tech stock prices are back at the covid bottom.

Fed hiked 0.75% as expected by the market. Central banks have been loading up on gold. Biden disincentivizes energy investments. Hundreds of new mines are needed to meet battery demand. We could see an OPEC-style cartel for battery metals.

Elon Musk now controls Twitter. Snap shows that analysts aren’t great at predicting the future. Meta (Facebook) is so bad that even Jim Cramer apologized. ESG is not going that well at the moment. ESG has also meant increased dependence on China.

UK political crisis continues. US ramps up the Tech war with China. The East loads up on gold. US mortgage rate hits 7%. Private investments are at risk of blowing up. Where are we in the cycle?