ISMS 26: Larry Swedroe – Are You Subject to the Endowment Effect or the Hot Streak Fallacy?
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Quick take
In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry discuss two chapters of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this seventh episode, they talk about mistake number 11: Do you let the price paid affect your decision to continue to hold an asset? And mistake number 12: Are you subject to the fallacy of the hot streak?
LEARNING: Look at everything you own from an economic perspective and decide whether to keep holding or selling. Avoid FOMO (fear of missing out) and stock picking; build a diversified portfolio.
“One of the biggest values of a good advisor is to educate people on rational economic decision-making so they can make informed investment decisions.”
Larry Swedroe
In today’s episode, Andrew continues his discussion with Larry Swedroe, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.
Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today Andrew and Larry discuss a chapter of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this seventh episode, they talk about mistake number 11: Do you let the price paid affect your decision to continue to hold an asset? And mistake number 12: Are you subject to the fallacy of the hot streak?
Missed out on previous mistakes? Check them out:
- ISMS 8: Larry Swedroe – Are You Overconfident in Your Skills?
- ISMS 17: Larry Swedroe – Do You Project Recent Trends Indefinitely Into the Future?
- ISMS 20: Larry Swedroe – Do You Extrapolate From Small Samples and Trust Your Intuition?
- ISMS 23: Larry Swedroe – Do You Allow Yourself to Be Influenced by Your Ego and Herd Mentality?
- ISMS 24: Larry Swedroe – Confusing Skill and Luck Can Stop You From Investing Wisely
- ISMS 25: Larry Swedroe – Admit Your Mistakes and Don’t Listen to Fake Experts
Mistake number 11: Do you let the price paid affect your decision to continue to hold an asset?
According to Larry, people value things more when they own them. This is due to the endowment effect, which causes people to put extra value emotionally and make decisions based on this. This type of decision-making is utterly irrational from an economic perspective.
The endowment effect is a big mistake that investors make, especially when they get gifted stocks or other investment instruments from a parent, spouse, relative, friend, etc. They then hold on to this concentrated risk when diversification is the best investment method.
Whenever you receive an investment as a gift, look at it from an economic perspective and ask yourself if you had money equivalent to the value of that gift would you invest in it? If the answer is no, then sell the gifted investment. If it’s yes, then keep it.
Larry also mentions another reaction to the endowment effect, where people think things familiar to them are safer. So, for example, a US investor will overweight US stocks, a Japanese investor will overweight Japanese stocks, or a French investor will think French stocks are the highest-performing and safest investments.
Mistake number 12: Are you subject to the fallacy of the hot streak?
Larry explains the fallacy of the hot streak as the habit of placing an overwhelming amount of value on what has happened recently. This common fallacy is closely related to recency bias.
According to Larry, we confuse skill with luck leading to the fallacy of a hot streak. If you find yourself amused by an investment’s recent success, first do statistical tests to see whether this was a random outcome above the expected average. For example, over a 20-year period, you would expect 2% of fund managers to outperform randomly. So if the actual number is 1%, we know fewer outperform than randomly expected. Therefore, we shouldn’t attach any value to the ones who did.
To deal with the fallacy of the hot streak, avoid FOMO and build a diversified portfolio. Also, avoid picking individual stocks that have far more to do with speculation than with investing.
About Larry Swedroe
Larry Swedroe is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.
Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.
Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.
Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.