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Learning that drives better investment decisions

Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 4 May 2024

Noteworthy this week

  • Only one cut by the Fed in 2024
  • 60/40 is not as safe as you may think
  • US accounts for 25% of global GDP
  • Replace nuclear with coal
  • The copper opportunity

Only one cut by the Fed in 2024: Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024. The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year.

60/40 is not as safe as you may think: Adding bonds to a diversified US equity portfolio reduces the probability of a large loss but does not eliminate it.

US accounts for 25% of global GDP: This year, the US is expected to account for 26% of global GDP, the most since 2006. What happened with the EU? And Japan?

Replace nuclear with coal: If you care about the environment, would you prefer coal or nuclear power? I know where I stand, and I’m pretty sure science supports it.

The copper opportunity: Copper is needed for Construction and Electronics, Electric Grid, Transportation (EVs), and Wind, Batteries, and Solar.

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Weekly market performance

Click here to see more markets and periods.

Chart of the week

Discussed in the Become a Better Investor Community this week

“Please find the above performance chart of the 5 stock strategies and 1 asset allocation strategy you have access to in the community.”

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Podcasts we listened to this week


“In this episode, William Green chats with Bryan Lawrence, a highly successful hedge fund manager who runs an investment firm called Oakcliff Capital. Bryan almost never gives interviews, so this is a rare opportunity to hear him speak in depth about the advantages of a concentrated value strategy, how he finds new investments, what 6 questions he asks when analyzing any stock, what he’s learned from Buffett & Munger, & how to build a happy life.”

Listen to the episode.

Readings this week

Most Investments are Actually Bad. Here’s Why.

h/t to our good friend, you know who you are.

“Historical data shows that the vast, vast majority of investments perform poorly. This is true for bonds, stocks, and real estate as asset classes. Nearly all of it makes for a bad investment for outside passive investors.”

Read the article

Book recommendation

Bad Therapy: Why the Kids Aren’t Growing Up by Abigail Shrier

“In Bad Therapy, bestselling investigative journalist Abigail Shrier argues that the problem isn’t the kids—it’s the mental health experts. Drawing on hundreds of interviews with child psychologists, parents, teachers, and young people, Shrier explores the ways the mental health industry has transformed the way we teach, treat, discipline, and even talk to our kids. She reveals that most of the therapeutic approaches have serious side effects and few proven benefits.”

Get the book on Audible or Kindle.

Audible is great; have you tried it? If not, click here to get 2 books for free.

Memes of the week

New My Worst Investment Ever episodes

ISMS 41: Larry Swedroe – Focus on Managing Risk Not Returns

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew gets into part two of his discussion with Larry Swedroe: Ignorance is Bliss. Today, they discuss three chapters of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this series, they discuss mistake number 32: Are You Subject to the Money Illusion? Mistake 33: Do You Believe Demographics Are Destiny? And mistake 34: Do You Follow a Prudent Process When Choosing a Financial Advisory Firm?

LEARNING: Understand how the money illusion works to avoid making financial mistakes. Focus on managing risk and not trying to manage returns. Past performance is meaningless for active managers.

Access the episode’s show notes and resources

Published on Become a Better Investor this week

In part 3 of this series, John Dues and host Andrew Stotz talk about the final 5 lessons for data analysis in education. Dive into this discussion to learn more about why data analysis is essential and how to do it right.

Listen to Goal Setting Is Often An Act of Desperation: Part 3

Tyson Foods Incorporated (TSN US): Profitable Growth rank of 9 was down compared to the prior period’s 3rd rank. This is poor performance compared to 560 large Cons. Staples companies worldwide.

Read Tyson Foods – World Class Benchmarking

In April 2024, we published 4 new episodes of the My Worst Investment Ever podcast. Listen to all of them here.

Listen to My Worst Investment Ever April 2024

Nike Incorporated (NKE US): Profitable Growth rank of 1 was up compared to the prior period’s 2nd rank. This is World Class performance compared to 950 large Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.

Read Nike – World Class Benchmarking

Adidas AG (ADS GR): Profitable Growth rank of 10 was down compared to the prior period’s 8th rank. This is poor performance compared to 950 large Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.

Read Adidas – World Class Benchmarking

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.