Newsletter

Trump announces ceasefire with Iran. Japanese government bond yields are OFF THE CHARTS. Berkshire’s war chest: US$373 bn of cash and Treasury bills. President Trump’s other inflation headache is beef. Most people think oil = petrol.

Energy is on a tear. The Strait of Hormuz doesn’t just move oil. Foreigners are dumping Asian stocks. Stagflation risk has increased. Foreigners own less US Treasuries.

Commodity prices can go way higher. Food prices are likely to rise. Saudi Arabia is rerouting its oil. Is gold going to beat the bear?. Green energy deforests the Amazon.

Traditional correlations are breaking down. US inflation ticking up. Private credit doesn’t look good. Chinese home prices fall further. Non-green energy security.

Asia is the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Fertilizer stops with a closed Hormuz. Iran attacked Thai-flagged vessel. Private credit defaults continue to rise. Remember, free market capitalism is the only way.

Thailand and Korea hit by rising oil prices. Some Asian markets have very low oil reserves. Hormuz isn’t just about oil. Oil prices above US$100/bbl correct themselves. BYD sees massive sales drop.

66% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming. EM earnings estimates are rising the fastest. 84% of people have never used AI. Non-US equity funds saw US$17bn in inflows last week. When to buy the dip.

No central bank gold-buying frenzy. Bond yields are expected to go higher. Lower diversification benefits from bonds. China ramps up trade with Latin America. Sector performance depends on the business cycle.

China’s UST holdings have dropped. Everyone wants Google debt. AI increases work. Bitcoin trades below production cost. Korea to the moon.

US becomes more active in Africa. The US bond market’s historical drawdown. US bonds yield negative for foreigners. The American grid can’t support data center buildout. AI agents to eat SaaS.