Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 2 May 2026
Noteworthy this week
- UAE exits OPEC after 59 years
- Iran war chokes global fertilizer supply
- Bear markets are buying opportunities
- EV adoption remains uneven globally
- Gold’s historic decoupling from real rates
UAE exits OPEC after 59 years: The UAE will leave OPEC on May 1st, breaking away to chart its own production strategy as the Iran war reshapes global energy markets.
🇦🇪 The UAE announces it will leave OPEC:
Effective May 1st, the decision ends a 59-year membership and reflects a focus on “what the UAE’s national interest requires, its commitment to its investment and importing partners, and the needs of the market.”
The country has stated… pic.twitter.com/pTvCunwzja
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) April 28, 2026
Iran war chokes global fertilizer supply: Gulf urea production has fallen by around 60% since the conflict began, with dozens of fertilizer ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. With the Middle East supplying roughly 45% of the global urea trade, food inflation is set to accelerate.
The Iran War is cutting vital fertilizer flows:
Gulf urea production is down to ~160,000 tons per week, hitting another new low of the year.
Urea is the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer and a crucial input for growing staple crops including corn, wheat, and rice.… pic.twitter.com/qEfxgHnhjI
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 28, 2026
Bear markets are buying opportunities: Historically, S&P 500 bear markets average just 14 months and a 38% decline, while the bull markets that follow average 70 months and a 221% gain. As Peter Lynch put it, “more money has been lost trying to avoid bear markets than during the bear market itself.”
Great chart and reminder. Lots of people are proclaiming that a market crash is coming for various reasons. They are not wrong; we will, at some point, have a bear market. But bear markets are buying opportunities and are relatively short-lived (14 months) compared with bull… pic.twitter.com/3KYMz88BjH
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) April 27, 2026
EV adoption remains uneven globally: Norway has nearly phased out ICE vehicles, while major economies like the US, India, and Brazil remain largely fossil-fuel powered.
EV adoption varies in different parts of the world.
Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) running on Fossil Fuels still seem to dominate in major economies. pic.twitter.com/P44OoB61wm
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) April 25, 2026
Gold’s historic decoupling from real rates: Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the long-standing inverse relationship between gold prices and real long-term interest rates has broken down as emerging-market central banks diversify away from the dollar.
Gold: The relationship between gold prices and real long-term interest rates broke down in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and EM central banks started diversifying away from the dollar 🪙👇 pic.twitter.com/4ybzECpvrY
— Oliver Groß (@minenergybiz) April 29, 2026
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Podcasts we listened to this week
Macro Voices #529 Ole S Hansen | Commodities in the wake of the Iran crisis
“Macro Voices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Ole Hansen. They discuss what comes next in the Iran conflict, what the longer-term implications are for energy markets, what’s coming in food inflation and how to trade it, and a longer-term outlook for secular inflation.”
Readings this week
Uncovered Thai Stocks: Constraints to growth | The power of thinking backward
“If you want to truly understand a company’s future, you need to stop asking ‘How big can they get?’ and start asking ‘What is stopping them from getting bigger?’ This is the essence of the constraints to growth analysis.”
Memes of the week
So good pic.twitter.com/MjUJV4K7Uh
— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeaceful) April 26, 2026
Bye bye now. See you in 5 minutes pic.twitter.com/nQgrPWRVgo
— Not Jerome Powell (@alifarhat79) April 29, 2026
Published on Become a Better Investor this week
In April 2026, we published 1 new episode of the My Worst Investment Ever podcast. Listen to all of them here.
Listen to My Worst Investment Ever April 2026
Sun Vending Technology Public Company Limited (SVT TB): Profitable Growth rank of 5 was same compared to the prior period’s 5th rank. This is average performance compared to 280 small Cons. Staples companies worldwide.
Read Sun Vending Technology – World Class Benchmarking
Amata VN Public Company Limited (AMATAV TB): Profitable Growth rank of 1 was up compared to the prior period’s 6th rank. This is World Class performance compared to 390 small Real Estate companies worldwide.
Read Amata VN – World Class Benchmarking
ARIP Public Company Limited (ARIP TB): Profitable Growth rank of 5 was same compared to the prior period’s 5th rank. This is average performance compared to 260 small Comm. Serv. companies worldwide.
Read ARIP – World Class Benchmarking
Hanmi Science Company Limited (008930 KS): Profitable Growth rank of 6 was up compared to the prior period’s 8th rank. This is below average performance compared to 370 large Health Care companies worldwide.
Read Hanmi Science – World Class Benchmarking
DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.