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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – June 2026

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 0.8%

Since inception, the strategy was up 24.2% and 10.7% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

Since last revision, the strategy was up 0.7%, which was 0.6% below the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex JP ex CN outperformed
  • The World Equity fund (TLA-GEQ) also saw outperformance
  • Our tilts to Commodities and Gold hurt performance

The strategy added 1.6% value compared to a 40/60 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 0.4% in 2025

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 0.8%

Since inception, the strategy was up 98.7% and 48.0% above a 60/40 portfolio

Since last revision, the strategy was up 0.8%, which was 0.7% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex JP ex CN performed well
  • The World Equity fund (TLA-GEQ) outperformed
  • Our allocation to the US slightly underperformed
  • Our tilts to Commodities and Gold dragged on performance

The strategy has added 8.7% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 6.7% in 2025

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 0.7%

Since inception, the strategy was up 40.5% and 27.2% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 5.7% above World Equity, and with lower drawdown

Since last revision, the strategy was up 0.7%, which was 0.8% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex JP ex CN outperformed
  • World Healthcare also delivered
  • The World Equity fund (TLA-GEQ) saw modest outperformance
  • Commodities and Gold did not work out this time

The strategy has added 9.4% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 9.1% in 2025

In June 2026, World Equity was down 0.8%

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20% to global equity and an overall equity allocation of 30%
  • World Equity pulled back slightly after hitting an all-time high earlier in the month

Performance of the World stock markets

  • NYSE saw steady gains, whilst tech-heavy NASDAQ pulled back on AI capex concerns
  • Japan ticked up 1%
  • China also saw modest gains, but HK large-cap tech names sold off sharply
  • Europe had a strong month

Trade policy uncertainty has come down, which could calm financial markets, too

The lower oil price likely leads to lower inflation

Quantitative Tightening (QT) seems to be over in the West, and QE may be on its way

US companies are fundamentally strong; the 25% expected EPS growth could support US equity

At 51% 2026CE* EPS growth, it’s Tech driving the S&P 500

Even though the US is facing many challenges, the market is typically considered resilient

  • The US also appears stronger than other developed markets like Europe and Japan
  • We have exposure to US equity through the global equity core allocation
  • We keep an additional 25% tilt, as the US can remain strong relative to other stock markets

Tech companies are expected to spend up to US$7trn to build data centers

The AI boom is the biggest opportunity (and risk)

  • AI infrastructure spending benefits companies like Nvidia, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Broadcom, ASML, Micron, SK Hynix, and AMD
  • Software companies like Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP stand to capitalize on AI adoption in businesses around the world
  • The global fund we use (TLA-GEQ) has a tilt to Global Tech in its Alpha portion
  • In addition, we keep a 5% tilt to World Info. Tech.

Keep a 25% tilt to Asia Pacific ex Japan ex China, which benefits from AI, EV, and Tech optimism

  • TLFVMR-ASIAX currently overweights Korea, Taiwan, and India

Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the DRAM, which is vital in PCs, smartphones, servers, cars

  • However, AI models require more memory
  • High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stacks 12–16 DRAM chips on top of each other

SK Hynix and Samsung are even more dominant in the HBM market with a 79% market share

  • This dominance is not going away any time soon

Taiwan dominates chips and servers for AI

  • Tech giants are increasingly designing their own custom AI chips, and TSMC is the leader in producing those custom designs
  • Taiwanese firms also produce about 90% of the world’s AI servers

TSMC holds 72% of the global market for chips ≤16nm and 90–95% for chips ≤5nm

Big Tech already committing US$126bn to new data center projects in India

  • International Data Center Authority (IDCA) estimates that India can allocate 12.7GW to data centers without building out the grid further

As AI-related stocks hit new highs, there’s a risk of a reversion; we take a more defensive stance

  • We reduce the overall equity allocation to 67% from 93% in AWAF
  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex Japan ex China and World Info. Tech. still give us AI exposure
  • At the same time, we decide to increase our weights in the defensive sectors, World Health Care, and World Infrastructure

In June 2026, Global Bonds gained 0.1%, hardly visible due to the asset class’s low volatility

  • We increase our core allocation to Global Bonds to 45% from 40%
  • Global Bonds remained flat and steady despite inflationary fears

Almost 1/3 of market participants expect the Fed to hike at the next meeting

Even with a new Trump-friendly Fed Chair, the market prices in hikes rather than cuts in 2026

Inflation makes rate hikes more likely than cuts; concurrently, central banks don’t want recession

US inflation expectations have fallen since mid-May (The market believes in the Fed?)

Credit spreads are tight at around 3 ppts, making investment-grade more attractive

In June 2026, Commodities fell 9.9%

  • We keep a 5% target allocation
  • Oil led the decline on a US-Iran MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Commodities, driven by energy, shot up with the start of the Iran war

  • Precious metals have weakened since the start, and there hasn’t been much action in agriculture and livestock
  • Despite the recent retreat, commodity prices have a good chance to go higher from here

Global energy consumption is constantly growing

There is a positive relationship between oil and food prices; expect food prices to rise

  • Fertilizer becomes more expensive, and so does the fuel for farming and transportation
  • Historically, 43% of the change in the oil price has been passed through to the food price index

Data centers, energy storage, and power grids drive demand for industrial metals

  • AI data centers, EVs, green energy, aerospace, and power grid upgrades all need copper and aluminum — the biggest components of industrial metals
  • We’ll cover precious metals, which is mainly gold, in the next section

In June 2026, Gold was down 11.8%

  • We keep a 5% target allocation to Gold, and get extra exposure through the Commodities tilt
  • Gold ended June 2026 at US$4,007/oz t, pressured by rising interest rate expectations

Given the geopolitical uncertainty, we expect central bank gold demand to remain elevated

Gold price momentum has lost momentum, but we like to keep a 5% allocation as “insurance”

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy