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Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 16 September 2023

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Noteworthy this week

  • Low expectations on China
  • Long big tech, short China
  • Apple still relies on China
  • US CPI rebounded in August
  • German bankruptcies on the rise

Low expectations on China: Fund managers are expecting China to remain weak over the next 12 months.

Long big tech, short China: Looking at fund managers, the most crowded trade is being long big tech, and the second most popular is being short China. Go with the flow or be contrarian?

Apple still relies on China: Apple is still expected to produce about 80% of its products in China by 2025. This could become a tricky situation.

US CPI rebounded in August: CPI rose to 3.7% YoY in August from 3.2% in July, though core CPI fell. It is also noteworthy that Powell’s favorite inflation measure accelerated >0.5% MoM.

German bankruptcies on the rise: In 1H23, German district courts reported 8,571 corporate insolvencies filed, up 21% YoY.

 

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Weekly market performance

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Chart of the week

Discussed in the Become a Better Investor Community this week

“We’ve just updated our Asia FVMR strategy.

We’ve just updated our ASEAN FVMR strategy.”

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Podcasts we listened to this week

Investing the Templeton Way – Crisis Investing: Investing Through a Global Pandemic with Bogumil Baranowski

“In this episode, we are joined by Bogumil Baranowski to talk about stock investing, managing generational wealth, his investment philosophy, ways to become a better investor, and how to change your environment and think differently as an investor.”

Listen to the episode.

Readings this week

Inflation in the Twenty-First Century: A Circular Flow No Longer

“What I do know is that the flow of dollars around the world has changed and that makes the mechanics of financing the US deficit more challenging, which in turn increases the likelihood that inflation will be used as tool to manage it.”

Read the blog post.

Book recommendation

Probable Impossibilities: Musings on Beginnings and Endings by Alan Lightman

“Can space be divided into smaller and smaller units, ad infinitum? Does space extend to larger and larger regions, on and on to infinity? Is consciousness reducible to the material brain and its neurons? What was the origin of life, and can biologists create life from scratch in the lab?”

Get the book on Audible or Kindle.

Audible is great; have you tried it? If not, click here to get 2 books for free.

Memes of the week

New My Worst Investment Ever episodes

Ep728: Nick Hutchison – Have a Proof of Concept Before You Dive Into the Big Idea

BIO: Nick Hutchison is the author of Rise of the Reader: Strategies for Mastering Your Reading Habits and Applying What You Learn and the founder of BookThinkers. This growing 7-figure digital marketing agency serves mission-driven authors.

STORY: Nick envisioned the first iteration of BookThinkers to be a grand mobile application. He got partners together, and they started working on the idea. Without much research or due diligence, the partners contracted an Argentinian company to build the app. Unfortunately, the company in Argentina went out of business under a year later.

LEARNING: Failure is a great thing. Before you dive into a big idea, have a proof of concept and spend tens of thousands of dollars on it. Do more due diligence and understand the process before jumping into it.

Access the episode’s show notes and resources

Published on Become a Better Investor this week

Learning Deming is like seeing the world through a different lens. In this episode, Bill Bellows uses various examples to show us how powerful that new vision can be.

Listen to Seeing Through New Eyes: Awaken Your Inner Deming (Part 7)

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew gets into part two of his discussion with Larry Swedroe: Ignorance is Bliss. Today, they discuss two chapters of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this tenth series, they discuss mistake number 18: Do you believe your fortune is in the stars? And mistake number 19: Do you rely on misleading information?

Read ISMS 30: Larry Swedroe – Do You Believe Your Fortune Is in the Stars or Rely on Misleading Information?

Grupo Comercial Chedraui SAB de CV (CHDRAUIB MM): Profitable Growth rank of 5 was same compared to the prior period’s 5th rank. This is average performance compared to 560 large Cons. Staples companies worldwide.

Read Grupo Comercial Chedraui SAB de CV – World Class Benchmarking

Central banks’ aggressive rate hikes and QT crash the stock markets. If inflation reaccelerates, we could miss out on rising commodities prices.

Read A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – August 2023

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT TB): Profitable Growth rank of 10 was same compared to the prior period’s 10th rank. This is poor performance compared to 1,460 large Industrials companies worldwide.

Read Airports of Thailand – World Class Benchmarking

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

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