So you think you are an above-average investor? Svenson (1981) asked Americans and Swedes whether they were above-average drivers. His findings were that more than 90% of Americans and about 70% of Swedes thought of themselves to be more skillful drivers than the average. The impossibility of these perceptions demonstrates the existence of overconfidence bias among humans.
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My research covering 4,000 companies across the world shows that, over the past 22 years, financial analysts have been wrong in their earnings forecasts about 33% of the time.
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