US Equity
Inflation Uptick Could Make the US Stock Market Go a Bit Further
One of the biggest challenges an investor faces right now is what to do with the US stock market. It is expensive, but the US Government and the Fed seem willing to do anything to keep the market from crashing. My conclusion at this point is that I will ride the US market up a bit further.
Read MoreInvestors Feel Almost No Risk of Long-Term US Stock Market Downside
I asked in a poll, “What US S&P500 average annual return do you expect over the next 10 years?” At the most extremes, 18% expected greater than 10%, while only 7% said less than zero percent. The majority said from 5-10%. In fact, most people see strong positive returns going forward.
Read MoreThe Results of Fed Encouraging Banks to Buy US Gov’t Debt
Depositors are going to have a decade of almost no interest on deposits. The private sector lending is likely to be crowded out by lending to the US government. Without significant lending, GDP growth will likely stagnate.
Read MoreSummary of the Fed’s Moves to Avert a Collapse
We take a look at the Fed’s potential moves to avoid a collapse in the US and discuss what the implications of these moves could be.
Read MoreFinancial Impact of the “No Loser Policy”
Losing sucks. It hurts. If you could avoid the pain of losing, would you? If you could avoid the pain today, but suffer some consequence in the distant future, would you? How about when your kids want some sweets?
Read MoreTrees Don’t Grow to the Sky, Tech Won’t Go Up Forever
Tech companies are facing big challenges with Trump sending the regulators after them. It could be argued that they are earning monopoly profits. Trump may push them to split into Republican and Democrat Facebook, Democrats may just break them up.
Read MoreUnderstanding the Inverted Yield Curve as a Recession Indicator
Chart of the Day: The level of inversion of the yield curve is one of the most powerful predictors of future economic growth, inflation, and recessions.
Read MoreIndonesia, Philippines, and China appear attractive in Asia
Chart of the Day: Indonesia and the Philippines remain attractive. China has moved to attractive from moderate, Thailand has fallen to moderate.
Read MoreDebt Burden Is Heaviest for the Gov’t in the US—but Not in China
Chart of the Day: China and US have more or less the same level of debt to GDP. In China, corporates have the highest burden while in the US the heaviest burden lies on the government.
Read MorePeaking US Net Margin and the Hidden Effect of Fed’s Policy
Chart of the Day: US net margin has recorded its highest peak since 1990. While net margin has been on the rise, efficiency has fallen. Fed’s policy of low interest rates has led to malinvestments, reducing efficiency.
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