Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 18 October 2025
Noteworthy this week
- Recession risk remains low
- Gold sets new ATH
- The gold trade is getting crowded (or is it?)
- Debt service surpasses US defense
- No rare-earths = no defense
Recession risk remains low: Only 8% of global fund managers expect a global recession in the next 12 months. The consensus trade is that the economy will be fine, which is needed to support current valuations.
#Recession risk remains a low probability event for investors at just 8%. The consensus trade is that the #economy will be fine, which is needed to support current valuations.
The #contrarian side of me says the crowd is almost always wrong. pic.twitter.com/sxdxrnCTns— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) October 15, 2025
Gold sets new ATH: The gold price surpassed US$4,200/oz t, and the yellow metal is now up 60% in 2025, its best year since 1979.
Gold is now up 60% in 2025, its best year since 1979. pic.twitter.com/9bKzOQ0Bbs
— Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) October 15, 2025
The gold trade is getting crowded (or is it?): 43% of global fund managers say “Long Gold” is the most crowded trade. Meanwhile, 39% of professional investors from the survey do not own any gold in their portfolios. The average investor’s allocation to gold is just 2.4%, near an all-time low.
Gold is going mainstream:
43% of global fund managers say “Long Gold” is the most crowded trade, according to a BofA survey of 166 participants with $400 billion in assets.
Gold has reclaimed the lead after 3 consecutive months where “Long Magnificent 7” topped the list.… pic.twitter.com/Vj1RJQmpk2
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 15, 2025
Debt service surpasses US defense: For the first time ever, the US is spending more on interest payments (US$1.2trn) than on national defense (US$1.1trn).
For the first time ever, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments ($1.16T) than on national defense ($1.13T).
The cost of past debt now exceeds the cost of protecting the nation.
The bill for decades of borrowing has come due. pic.twitter.com/ZZBzhFfPxG— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) October 15, 2025
No rare-earths = no defense: Outsourcing rare-earths supply to China was the biggest geopolitical mistake since WWII.
No rare-earths = no defense
Outsourcing rare-earths supply to China was the biggest geopolitical mistake since WWII.
But we care about environment and rare-earths mining & melting is greener in China than in the US and Europe, right? pic.twitter.com/1UMPiwu8XS
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) October 11, 2025
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Weekly market performance
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Podcasts we listened to this week
Daniel Peris: Is Your Portfolio Built on a 40-Year Illusion? – Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski
“Daniel Peris is a historian-turned-portfolio manager at Federated who uniquely combines PhD-level expertise in Russian history with two decades of investment experience to challenge modern finance’s dismissal of dividend investing through rigorous historical analysis.”
Readings this week
The Best of Howard Mark’s Memos
“To celebrate 35 years of my memos, I’m thrilled to release this collection of the ones I think are the best.”
Book recommendation
When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows…: Common Knowledge and the Mysteries of Money, Power, and Everyday Life by Steven Pinker
“Common knowledge is necessary for coordination, for making arbitrary but complementary choices like driving on the right, using paper currency, and coalescing behind a political leader or movement.”
Get the book on Audible or Kindle.
Audible is great; have you tried it? If not, click here to get 2 books for free.
Memes of the week
🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/39zs3pEpl9
— Not Jerome Powell (@alifarhat79) October 12, 2025
Made this myself 😆 pic.twitter.com/9Vq8MKqOgA
— Dr J Rould (@jrouldz) October 11, 2025
Published on Become a Better Investor this week
What if learning could feel like a team sport instead of a pressure test? Lyle “Lee” Jenkins, PhD., a longtime educator, shares how a chance encounter led him to a Deming conference specifically for educators in 1992, which transformed his thinking.
Listen to Dr. Deming’s Advice to Educators: Crazy Simple Education (Part 1)
Seria Company Limited (2782 JP): Profitable Growth rank of 3 was same compared to the prior period’s 3rd rank. This is above average performance compared to 910 large Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.
Read Seria – World Class Benchmarking
SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104 SH): Profitable Growth rank of 9 was up compared to the prior period’s 10th rank. This is poor performance compared to 910 large Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.
Read SAIC Motor Corp – World Class Benchmarking
MK Restaurant Group Public Company Limited (M TB): Profitable Growth rank of 4 was down compared to the prior period’s 3rd rank. This is above average performance compared to 790 medium Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.
Read MK Restaurant Group – World Class Benchmarking
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited (1929 HK): Profitable Growth rank of 4 was same compared to the prior period’s 4th rank. This is above average performance compared to 910 large Cons. Disc. companies worldwide.
Read Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group – World Class Benchmarking
DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.