Posts by Andrew Stotz
ISMS 2: The Man Behind the Most Successful Recession Indicator Questions It
In a recent LinkedIn post, Campbell Harvey outlined why his yield curve inversion theory, which has a perfect record of predicting recessions, may no longer work. He concludes that we may not get a recession in 2023.
Read MoreBecome a Better Investor Newsletter – 21 January 2023
High US teen employment shows Fed isn’t done. New data suggests trouble for the US housing market. Amazon’s revenue is larger than 70 countries’ GDP. India is the next global growth engine. The dirty extraction of minerals for green energy.
Read MoreThe Importance of Operational Definitions: Deming in Education with David P. Langford (Part 12)
Operational definitions are clearly defined words, phrases, and concepts that everyone working together agrees to use in the same way. Making assumptions about words like “tardy” or “good” is a fast track to confusion and disengagement. In this episode, Andrew and David talk about operational definitions in education – for students, faculty, and administrators.
Read MoreISMS 1: The United States Won WW2.5, but Who Lost?
WW2.5 is what I like to call “The US against who?” You may say China or Russia. In my opinion, those are both wrong. It’s the US against Europe. And the US just won. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has encouraged US dominance over Europe. Let’s take a deeper look at this dominance.
Read MoreBecome a Better Investor Newsletter – 14 January 2023
The most expected recession in history. US stocks have seen inflows, and Europe has seen outflows. It’s not only US stocks that perform over time. Korea has a sober energy policy. • Eggs have become expensive, or have they?
Read MoreDeadly Disease of Employee of the Month: Deming in Education with David P. Langford (Part 11)
Dr. Deming listed 7 Deadly Diseases of Management in Out of the Crisis, and one of the more surprising is #3: Evaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual review. In this episode, David and Andrew discuss the harmful practice of awarding “teacher of the year,” “student of the month,” or other traditional recognition practices. David also offers practical suggestions for alternatives.
Read MoreA. Stotz All Weather Strategies – December 2022
Central bankers appear to be raising rates into a recession to stifle inflation; stagflation would be the worst outcome. Demand for necessities (food and energy), inflation, and supply-chain disruptions can drive commodities higher. We see opportunities to allocate to specific sectors and markets within equity. Bonds and gold to protect capital.
Read MoreBecome a Better Investor Newsletter – 7 January 2023
Europe is highly dependent on gas. Luckily, the winter has been mild so far in Europe. US mortgage rates are at a level not seen for a long time. The Japanese Yen has rebounded. 2022 was an awful year for a stock + bond portfolio.
Read MoreWeaponizing Special Causes: Deming in Education with David P. Langford (Part 10)
In this episode, David and Andrew talk about Common Cause Variation vs Special Cause Variation, and the problem of confusing the two. Using the example of transgender students, David describes how a system’s capability should be expanded rather than using that special cause situation as a weapon to destroy the entire system.
Read MoreMy Worst Investment Ever December 2022
In December 2022, we published 13 new episodes of the My Worst Investment Ever podcast. Listen to all of them here.
Read More