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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – October 2025

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in October 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • NYSE fell, while Tech-heavy NASDAQ saw a strong month
  • Japan gained even more than the NASDAQ
  • China was mixed, HK had a bad month
  • Europe had a fairly good month

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

8% of the S&P 500 is AI-related and accounts for 47% of the market cap

AI drives US GDP

Earnings-driven return of Mag 7

Only 8% of fund managers expect a global recession in the next 12 months

Gold sets new ATH

Gold sees record price fall

Institutional gold demand remains strong

World Equity gained 1.7% in October

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • Fed’s 0.25% cut in October, easing US-China trade tensions, and continued AI momentum, drove global stocks

Global Bonds gained 0.8% in October

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • Expectations about further cuts from global central banks following slowing economies and stable inflation drove Global Bonds

Commodities gained slightly in October

  • We had no target allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed October at US$61/bbl versus US$63/bbl in September

  • Oil became cheaper as supply remained ample and the global economic outlook weakened

All gained except Livestock

  • Industrial metals were strongest

Gold gained 4.6% in October 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$4,003/oz t
  • Continued uncertainty drove the Gold price to new heights

All currencies weakened against Gold in October 2025

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 1.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 17.6% and 7.7% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In October 2025, the strategy was up 1.3%, which was on par with the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our tilts to Gold and Info. Tech. did great
  • Our 5% tilt to Financials underperformed
  • Global Bonds did well, but below World Equity
  • TIPS underperformed Global Bonds

The strategy has underperformed a 40/60 portfolio by 0.3% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 1.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 2.9%

Since inception, the strategy was up 74.6% and 31.4% above a 60/40 portfolio

In October 2025, the strategy was up 2.9%, which was 1.4% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocations to APAC ex JP, CN equity, and Gold outperformed significantly
  • Our 25% allocation to China underperformed
  • Our underweight of the US helped relative to World Equity

The strategy has added 6.8% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus lost 1.0%

Since inception, the strategy was up 19.1% and 11.4% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 4.3% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In October 2025, the strategy was down 1.0%, which was 2.5% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 20% tilt to Vietnam, China Small Caps, and Precious Metals Miners all underperformed

The strategy has added 5.5% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.7% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy