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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – March 2025

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in March 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US dropped; tech-heavy NASDAQ was worst
  • Japan was down slightly
  • China was mixed; Hong Kong did the best
  • Europe was down, but less than the US

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

World Equity was down 3.7% in March

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • Trump’s tariffs and reciprocal tariffs led to continued uncertainty and pushed down stocks

Global Bonds fell, but less than stocks

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • Expectations about slower rate cuts in the US and EU led to weak bond performance; still better than stocks

Commodities did well in March

  • We had no allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed March at US$72/bbl versus US$70/bbl in February

  • Oil has traded sideways as demand expectations remain flat and OPEC+ stands ready to supply

Commodities were up almost across the board in March 2025

  • Only Agriculture fell
  • Precious metals were strongest due to geopolitical uncertainty

Gold gained 7.2% in March 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$3,123/oz t
  • Increased geopolitical uncertainty following Trump’s tariffs led to a rise in the Gold price

All currencies weakened >5% against Gold in March 2025

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

European stocks have beaten US stocks by a wide margin 2025YTD

Fund managers reduce weights to US

Tariffs could reach record highs

Young Americans are pessimistic

US bond market has been in a drawdown for 55 months

Gold surpasses US$3,100/oz t

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 0.2%

Since inception, the strategy was up 9.9% and 9.6% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In March 2025, the strategy was up 0.2%, which was 1.5% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our 10% allocation to Gold did great
  • Bonds did better than stocks in March 2025
  • TIPS and Money Market outperformed Global Bonds
  • Our 5% allocations to Financials and Info. Tech. underperformed

The strategy has added 2.1% value compared to a 40/60 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 1.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy lost 0.6%

Since inception, the strategy was up 49.1% and 22.0% above a 60/40 portfolio

In March 2025, the strategy was down 0.6%, which was 1.9% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocation to Developed Europe equity was flat, which was good relative to World Equity
  • Our 25% allocations to Global Bonds and China were down, but outperformed World Equity

The strategy has added 2.1% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return than 60/40
  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 1.1%

Since inception, the strategy was up 6.6% and 11.1% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 3.0% above World Equity, with a lot less volatility

In March 2025, the strategy was up 1.1%, which was 3.5% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our big tilts to Gold and Infrastructure did great
  • Our big tilt to Health Care underperformed
  • Our 13% allocation to Global Bonds helped relative to stocks, so did our 3% tilts to Energy and China Small Caps

The strategy has added 5.9% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.5% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy