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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – July 2026

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard fell 0.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 23.8% and 11.7% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In July 2026, the strategy fell 0.3%, which was 0.9% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Commodities outperformed, as did Gold
  • Our core allocation to the Global Bond fund (TLA-GFIX) performed well
  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex JP ex CN fell the most

Since last revision, the strategy was up 0.4%, which was 0.3% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • The Global Bond fund (TLA-GFIX) drove the outperformance
  • Our tilt to TIPS beat the 40/60 portfolio
  • Our tilts to Asia Pacific ex JP ex CN and Gold underperformed

The strategy added 2.6% value compared to a 40/60 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 0.4% in 2025

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy fell 1.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 96.2% and 47.1% above a 60/40 portfolio

In July 2026, the strategy fell 1.3%, which was 0.2% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Commodities outperformed significantly
  • US equity, where we had a 25% tilt, was flat
  • While our tilt to Asia ex Japan ex China (TLFVMR-ASIAX) was the main reason for the underperformance

Since last revision, the strategy fell 0.5%, which was 0.9% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% tilts to Commodities and Asia ex Japan ex China (TLFVMR-ASIAX) were the main reasons for the underperformance

The strategy has added 8.3% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 6.7% in 2025

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus fell 1.0%

Since inception, the strategy was up 39.1% and 27.0% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 5.2% above World Equity, and with lower drawdown

In July 2026, the strategy fell 1.0%, which was 0.1% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our tilt to Commodities outperformed
  • Our defensive positions in Global bonds (TLA-GFIX) and Healthcare worked, but Infrastructure fell
  • Our tilt to Asia ex Japan ex China (TLFVMR-ASIAX) underperformed

Since last revision, the strategy was up 0.3%, which was 0.7% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our defensive tilt to World Healthcare and Global bonds (TLA-GFXI) worked out well
  • World Infrastructure, Asia ex Japan ex China (TLFVMR-ASIAX), and Gold underperformed

The strategy has added 9.4% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2026YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 9.1% in 2025

In July 2026, World Equity was up 0.1%

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 15% to global equity and an overall equity allocation of 65%
  • World Equity held steady, closing out the month 1.2% below June’s all-time high

Performance of the World stock markets

  • NYSE edged out a small gain while tech-heavy Nasdaq declined
  • Japan and Europe both remained flat
  • China fell sharply, whilst Hong Kong rebounded

Trade policy uncertainty has come down, which could calm financial markets, too

Higher oil prices could reignite inflation

US has become slightly cheaper relative to the rest of the world

US companies are fundamentally strong; the 28% expected EPS growth could support US equity

At 53% 2026CE* EPS growth, it’s Tech driving the S&P 500

Even though the US is facing many challenges, the market is typically considered resilient

  • The US also appears stronger than other developed markets like Europe and Japan
  • We have exposure to US equity through the global equity core allocation
  • We keep an additional 25% tilt, as the US can remain strong relative to other stock markets

Tech companies are expected to spend up to US$7trn to build data centers

The AI boom is the biggest opportunity (and risk)

  • AI infrastructure spending benefits companies like Nvidia, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Broadcom, ASML, Micron, SK Hynix, and AMD
  • Software companies like Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP stand to capitalize on AI adoption in businesses around the world
  • The global fund we use (TLA-GEQ) has a tilt to Global Tech in its Alpha portion
  • In addition, we keep a 5% tilt to World Info. Tech.

Keep a 25% tilt to Asia Pacific ex Japan ex China, which benefits from AI, EV, and Tech optimism

  • TLFVMR-ASIAX currently overweights Korea, Taiwan, and India

Despite the recent fall, Korea remains in uptrend

Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the DRAM, which is vital in PCs, smartphones, servers, cars

  • However, AI models require more memory
  • High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stacks 12–16 DRAM chips on top of each other

SK Hynix and Samsung are even more dominant in the HBM market with a 79% market share

  • This dominance is not going away any time soon

Taiwan dominates chips and servers for AI

  • Tech giants are increasingly designing their own custom AI chips, and TSMC is the leader in producing those custom designs
  • Taiwanese firms also produce about 90% of the world’s AI servers

TSMC holds 72% of the global market for chips ≤16nm and 90–95% for chips ≤5nm

Big Tech already committing US$126bn to new data center projects in India

  • International Data Center Authority (IDCA) estimates that India can allocate 12.7GW to data centers without building out the grid further

As AI-related stocks hit new highs, there’s a risk of a reversion; we take a more defensive stance

  • We keep an overall equity allocation of 67%
  • Our tilt to Asia Pacific ex Japan ex China and World Info. Tech. still give us AI exposure
  • At the same time, we hold allocations to defensive sectors, World Healthcare and World Infrastructure

Aging populations need more healthcare, making it a structural growth theme

  • We keep a 13% allocation to World Healthcare

Infrastructure has been defensive, and 46% of the fund* is invested in various Utilities

  • Utilities are defensive because they provide essentials like electricity, natural gas, and water
  • We keep a 13% allocation to World Infrastructure

In July 2026, Global Bonds fell 1.6%

  • We keep a minimum 5% target allocated to Global Bonds
  • Global Bonds fell as the US-Iran ceasefire broke down again, adding to inflation concerns

The market grows more confident in a Fed hike

The market has already moved ahead of the Fed

Since the war, the market has priced in a much higher path

Chair Warsh is letting the market do the work

Rising rates are priced in globally, not just in US

Credit spreads remain tight at around 3 ppts, making investment-grade more attractive

In July 2026, Commodities gained 12.6%

  • We keep a 25% target allocation
  • Oil led the rebound as tensions in Iran escalated with further attacks from both sides

Commodities, driven by energy, shot up with the start of the Iran war

  • Precious metals have weakened since the start, and there hasn’t been much action in agriculture and livestock
  • Energy has started to push up again; commodity prices have a good chance to go higher from here

As peace talks break down, oil prices go up

EIA estimates that global inventories will continue to fall in 3Q26 before getting rebuilt

Demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel remains strong, which could drive prices

If oil prices turn up, expect food prices to follow

  • Fertilizer becomes more expensive, and so does the fuel for farming and transportation
  • In addition, El Niño might lead to drought, which could reduce crop yields

Data centers, energy storage, and power grids drive demand for industrial metals

  • AI data centers, EVs, green energy, aerospace, and power grid upgrades all need copper and aluminum — the biggest components of industrial metals
  • We’ll cover precious metals, which is mainly gold, in the next section

In July 2026, Gold was up 0.6%

  • We keep a 5% target allocation to Gold, and get extra exposure through the Commodities tilt
  • Gold ended July 2026 at US$4,045/oz t, holding around an area of support

Given the geopolitical uncertainty, we expect central bank gold demand to remain elevated

Gold price momentum has lost momentum, but we like to keep an allocation as “insurance”

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy