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Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 2 September 2023

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Noteworthy this week

  • There’ll be no US recession
  • CRE is not doing well
  • Credit card delinquency at 30-year high
  • China’s private debt may have peaked
  • Chinese gov’t stimulates stock trading

There’ll be no US recession: The consensus now is that there will be no recession in the US. It might be right; it might be wrong. What is that saying about economists and weather forecasters now again?

CRE is not doing well: Commercial property prices are down from their peak in March 2022, and the Office sector has fared the worst, down 31%.

Credit card delinquency at 30-year high: Overdue credit card bills at smaller banks are at the highest rate since 1991. This is not a good sign for consumer spending or small banks.

China’s private debt may have peaked: Japan, Thailand, and Spain all saw painful deleveraging after their credit-fueled booms. Is it China’s time now?

Chinese gov’t stimulates stock trading: This week, we learned that China is reducing tax on stock trading to stimulate the Chinese stock market. CSI300 gapped up on Monday, but it has been pretty much sideways since.

Careers in Finance – Live Streaming

Dr. Gregory Bournet, CFA – September 4, 16:30 (GMT+7/ICT)

Dr. Gregory Bournet, CFA is a seasoned cross-border M&A advisor with two decades of deal experience in Europe, Hong Kong, China, USA, and Japan. He is currently heading the PwC Malaysia & Vietnam corporate finance (investment banking) practices.

Click attend on the LinkedIn event

Ved Vyas, CFA – September 6, 19:00 (GMT+7/ICT)

Ved Vyas, CFA started his career as an analyst with UBS Investment Bank, London, and has over 13 years of experience working in financial services across Europe and Asia. Currently, at Eden Estate, Ved is responsible for providing financial management to enable the company’s long-term strategic vision whilst solving near-term challenges.

Click attend on the LinkedIn event

Chatchada Singchoovong – September 12, 16:30 (GMT+7/ICT)

Chatchada Singchoovong CFP® is an independent financial planner, CFP instructor, and financial influencer while also taking care of her family’s insurance broker business. She started in banking but realized that her calling is to help others have peace of mind in their financial plan and enjoy investing. Chatchada is a Valuation Master Class Boot Camp graduate.

Click attend on the LinkedIn event

Annapurna Chatterjee – September 13, 09:30 (GMT+7/ICT)

Annapurna Chatterjee is a Senior Associate at AWR Lloyd – a specialist strategy and transactions advisory firm focused on Asia and the Middle East. She has experience in various financial products across equities, fixed income, and insurance. Annapurna graduated from the Valuation Master Class Boot Camp in 2022, and that’s how she got introduced to AWR Lloyd, who sponsored that Boot Camp.

Click attend on the LinkedIn event

Join the world’s toughest valuation training

Become a Valuation Expert. Valuation Master Class Boot Camp graduates can confidently value any company in the world and possess in-demand industry skills.

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Weekly market performance

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Chart of the week

Discussed in the Become a Better Investor Community this week

“Country Garden warned that it may default on its debt and raised concerns about staying in business as it posted a record first-half loss of almost $7 billion. China Vanke posted a 19% drop in net income.”

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Podcasts we listened to this week

RWH031: ABUNDANCE W/ MICHAEL BERG

“Here, Michael discusses how to extract more pleasure from whatever wealth you have; why sharing your money & time builds a greater sense of abundance; how to support your kids without sapping their desire to succeed; why deferred gratification is a superpower in business & life; how to handle challenges & adversity; & why the real key to happiness is appreciation.”

Listen to the episode.

Readings this week

Inflation: Don’t Pop the Champagne (Yet)

“Even though inflation fell below 3% in the first half of 2023, let’s not celebrate too early as there is a possibility of inflation rebounding later in 2023. Inflation is not always transitory, it’s just one of a wide range of outcomes (and historically has not been the norm).Investors are cautioned not to be overly optimistic about inflation and to be prepared for the possibility of higher inflation in the future.”

Read the article

Book recommendation

A History of the Human Brain: From the Sea Sponge to CRISPR, How Our Brain Evolved by Bret Stetka

“In A History of the Human Brain, Bret Stetka takes us on this far-reaching journey, explaining exactly how our most mysterious organ developed. From the brain’s improbable, watery beginnings to the marvel that sits in the head of Homo sapiens today, Stetka covers an astonishing progression, even tackling future brainy frontiers such as epigenetics and CRISPR. Clearly and expertly told, this intriguing account is the story of who we are.”

Get the book on Audible or Kindle.

Audible is great; have you tried it? If not, click here to get 2 books for free.

Memes of the week

New My Worst Investment Ever episodes

Ep724: Mark Neuman – Constrained Capital and ESG Orphans

BIO: Mark Neuman is the CIO and founder of Constraint Capital. He is a CFA charterholder and creator of the ESG orphans index.

STORY: Mark talks about constrained capital, ESG orphans, and his work around it.

LEARNING: We can’t get to the future of energy without present energy. To win the renewable energy fight, we must put facts above feelings.

Access the episode’s show notes and resources

Ep723: Ryan Dusick – Invest Yourself in Something That’s Meaningful

BIO: Ryan Dusick is an associate marriage and family therapist, life coach, mental health advocate, and the founding drummer of the world’s most popular band, Maroon 5.

STORY: Ryan’s worst investment ever was spending a decade of his time, energy, and focus believing that he had control over his life. Simply playing God with the reality of his existence.

LEARNING: Happiness comes from connection and purpose. Investing yourself in something meaningful to you establishes purpose.

Access the episode’s show notes and resources

Ep722: Thomas Chua – Have a Proper Sell Thesis When Investing

BIO: Thomas Chua is the founder of SteadyCompounding.com, where he writes about business breakdowns, investment concepts, and timeless lessons from super investors.

STORY: Thomas invested in a company that had a gaming and e-commerce business. The gaming business was his main attraction, but over time, it started faltering. Unfortunately, Thomas held on until the stock went too low.

LEARNING: Have a proper sell thesis when it comes to investing, especially for smaller companies. Always write down why you should buy certain companies and what will cause you to sell them. When investing in small to mid-companies, ensure you’re adequately diversified.

Access the episode’s show notes and resources

Published on Become a Better Investor this week

Information is data: it’s the what, when, where, and who of something. Knowledge requires looking at the bigger picture and asking why. So how do we go from having information to having knowledge? Bill and Andrew talk about tools, techniques, concepts, and strategies.

Listen to Beyond Tools & Techniques: Awaken Your Inner Deming (Part 5)

China Resources Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group Company Limited (300294 SZ): Profitable Growth rank of 4 was up compared to the prior period’s 5th rank. This is above average performance compared to 410 medium Health Care companies worldwide.

Read China Resources Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group – World Class Benchmarking

Doosan Bobcat Incorporated (241560 KS): Profitable Growth rank of 2 was same compared to the prior period’s 2nd rank. This is World Class performance compared to 640 small Industrials companies worldwide.

Read Doosan Bobcat – World Class Benchmarking

Heineken Malaysia Berhad (HEIM MK): Profitable Growth rank of 1 was same compared to the prior period’s 1st rank. This is World Class performance compared to 410 medium Cons. Staples companies worldwide.

Read Heineken Malaysia – World Class Benchmarking

Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (ICHI TB): Profitable Growth rank of 2 was up compared to the prior period’s 3rd rank. This is World Class performance compared to 410 medium Cons. Staples companies worldwide.

Read Ichitan Group – World Class Benchmarking

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

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