Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
The post was originally published here.
Listen on
Apple | Listen Notes | Spotify | YouTube | Other
Quick take
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 07: The Value of Security Analysis.
LEARNING: Smart investors, like smart businesspeople, care about results, not efforts.
“Smart investors, like smart businesspeople, care about results, not efforts. That is why “smart money” invests in “passively managed,” structured portfolios that invest systematically in a transparent and replicable manner.”
Larry Swedroe
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.
Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 07: The Value of Security Analysis.
Chapter 07: The Value of Security Analysis
In this chapter, Larry explains how to test the efficiency of the market by looking at how good security analysts are at predicting the future. If they can outsmart the markets, then the markets are not efficient.
Do investors who follow security analysts’s recommendations outperform the market?
In business, results are what matters— not effort. The same is true in investing because we cannot spend efforts, only results. The basic premise of active management is that, through their efforts, security analysts can identify and recommend undervalued stocks and avoid overvalued ones. As a result, investors who follow their recommendations will outperform the market. Is this premise myth or reality?
To answer this question, Larry relies on the robust findings of academic research in the paper Analysts and Anomalies. The authors meticulously examined the recommendations of U.S. security analysts over the period 1994 through 2017. Their findings debunk the myth of analysts’ infallibility and shed light on the surprising ways analysts’ predictions conflict with well-documented anomalies. They also found that buy recommendations did not predict returns, though sell recommendations did predict lower returns. Another intriguing finding was that among the group of “market” anomalies (such as momentum and idiosyncratic risk), which are based only on stock returns, price, and volume data, analysts produce more favorable recommendations and forecast higher returns among the stocks that are stronger buys according to market anomalies. This is perhaps surprising, as analysts are supposed to be experts in firms’ fundamentals. Yet, they performed best with anomalies not based on accounting data.
The evidence in this academic paper suggests that analysts even contribute to mispricing, as their recommendations are systematically biased by favoring overvalued stocks according to anomaly-based composite mispricing scores. The authors concluded: “Analysts today are still overlooking a good deal of valuable, anomaly-related information.”
Results are what matters not effort
In conclusion, Larry states that if corporate insiders (e.g., boards of directors), with access to far more information than any security analyst is likely to have, have such great difficulty in determining a “correct” valuation, then it is easy to understand why the results of active management are poor and inconsistent.
While security analysts and active portfolio managers make great efforts to beat the market, historical evidence shows that those efforts have proven counterproductive most of the time. And savvy investors, like smart businesspeople, care about results, not efforts. That is why “smart money” invests in “passively managed,” structured portfolios that invest systematically in a transparent and replicable manner.
Further reading
- Joseph Engelberg, David McLean and Jeffrey Pontiff, “Analysts and Anomalies,” Journal of Accounting and Finance (February 2020).
Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:
Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform
- Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
- Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
- Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
- Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
- Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
- Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
About Larry Swedroe
Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.
Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.
Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.
Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.