Demographics, Debt, and Education Failures Threaten Thailand’s Future
When I arrived in Thailand in 1992, the country felt electric. GDP growth was soaring past 8 percent, and everywhere you looked, something was being built, roads, factories, a future. Thailand was undergoing a rapid transition from an agricultural to an industrialized society, driven by exports and foreign investment. I still remember reading an article in The Economist that confidently predicted, at this pace, that Thailand would join the ranks of the world’s largest economies. Back then, it was easy to believe.
I was just beginning my career as a financial analyst, and Thailand was a great place to be. A few years later, in 1995, my best friend, Dale, and I launched CoffeeWORKS, which he still runs today. And since 1992, I have been teaching finance and business at Thai universities. That gave me a front-row seat to the country’s development, from its boardrooms to its classrooms.
Now, after more than three decades of living and working here, I can’t help but reflect on how much has changed and what hasn’t. Thailand has achieved impressive milestones, but it now faces some significant long-term challenges. From my perspective, three stand out.
Thailand is growing old too quickly, and the economic consequences are already visible
Thailand is aging faster than almost any other country in Southeast Asia. The median age has passed 40, and the birth rate has dropped below 1.1 children per woman. Only South Korea has fallen lower. Meanwhile, countries like the Philippines, with a median age of 26 and a birth rate of 2.7, still have time on their side.
Thailand does not. The workforce is shrinking. Pressure on productivity is mounting. And the cost of caring for the elderly is rising. I feel this personally. For the past nine years, I’ve cared for my 87-year-old mother here in Thailand. I’ve seen the gaps in the system, the strain on families, and the quiet burden that many shoulder alone.
Heavy debt levels are holding back Thai families and slowing economic growth
Thailand also carries one of the highest household debt loads in Asia, accounting for nearly 90% of its GDP. That kind of debt limits spending dampens investment, and weighs on growth. When families are stretched thin, it’s hard to move forward.
In countries like Indonesia or the Philippines, where household debt is lower, there’s more breathing room. In Thailand, the debt problem doesn’t make headlines every day, but it quietly drags on the economy and keeps many people stuck in a state of survival.
An outdated education system has left Thai students unprepared for the future
This one hits close to home. I’ve been a part-time university lecturer in Thailand for over 30 years, and I’ve witnessed the lack of development in the quality of the education system. Test scores in science, math, and English continue to lag behind countries like Vietnam and Malaysia.
The problem isn’t a lack of talent; Thailand has no shortage of bright young people. The problem is a system that has never equipped them to thrive. Of course, the rich have the means to escape this. And with the rise of AI, the risks are greater. If we don’t build up students’ ability to think critically and adapt, they’ll be left behind in a world that won’t wait.
Thailand’s long-term success depends on solving these three structural challenges
Thailand has overcome considerable challenges before, and I still believe it has the resilience to do so again. However, these three issues — demographics, debt, and education — won’t go away on their own. They require more than surface-level solutions. They demand leadership, structural reform, and a willingness to face uncomfortable truths.
After 33 years of building a life here, I want to see Thailand succeed. But if these problems aren’t addressed with the urgency they deserve, they will quietly shape the country’s future in ways we might not like. And that bright future we once imagined? It will slip further out of reach.
There’s still time. But not forever.
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