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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – September 2025

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in September 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US was up
  • And Japan was up about the same
  • HK was up significantly more than China A
  • Europe had a strong month

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

NVIDIA market cap surpasses US$4.5trn

Global debt hit a new ATH of US$338trn

US gov’t paid US$1.2trn in interest in the past year

Gold hit US$3,900/oz t for the first time in history

39% of fund managers have no gold

Silver hit the highest price in 14 years

World Equity gained 1.3% in September

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • Fed’s 0.25% in September, and market expectations about a further cut in October, supported global stocks

Global Bonds gained 0.3% in September 2025

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • EExpected further rate cuts by the Fed drove Global Bonds

Commodities gained slightly in September 2025

  • We had no target allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed September at US$63/bbl versus US$64/bbl in August

  • Oil became cheaper as supply remained ample and the global economic outlook weakened

Precious metals was the strongest

  • Industrial metals gained, too

Gold shot up 11.2% in September 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$3,858/oz t
  • The looming US government shutdown and Fed rate cut drove gold price

All currencies weakened >10% against Gold in September 2025

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 0.4%

Since inception, the strategy was up 12.6% and 4.2% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In September 2025, the strategy was up 0.4%, which was 1.2% below the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our tilts to Gold and Info. Tech. did great
  • Our 5% tilt to Financials did poorly
  • The World Equity fund we use underperformed
  • TIPS and the Money Market underperformed Global Bonds

The strategy has underperformed a 40/60 portfolio by 5.0% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 5.2% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 6.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 69.7% and 28.6% above a 60/40 portfolio

In September 2025, the strategy was up 6.3%, which was 4.2% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocation to Gold outperformed massively
  • APAC ex JP, CN beat World Equity, and we had a 25% target weight
  • Our 25% allocation to China performed in line with MSCI AC World

The strategy has outperformed a 60/40 portfolio by 5.1% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 5.9%

Since inception, the strategy was up 20.4% and 14.3% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 0.6% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In September 2025, the strategy was up 5.9%, which was 3.8% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 20% tilt to Precious Metals Miners and 4% in Gold drove the outperformance
  • Our 20% tilt to China Small Caps did OK, while our 20% tilt to Vietnam underperformed

The strategy has added 8.4% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.7% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy