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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – November 2024

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in November 2024

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US stocks did well
  • Japan was flat
  • Hong Kong fell, while China A-shares gained
  • And Europe was down

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

World Equity continued up in November

  • We have a 20% core target allocation
  • In 2024YTD, global stocks gained 20.8%
  • As Trump and the Republicans won the US election, financial markets gained some clarity, and World Equity gained

Global Bonds rose in November 2024

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • Yields falling back at the end of the month helped Global Bonds performance

Commodities were flat in November

  • We had no allocation to Commodities
  • Metals were the main drag

WTI oil closed November at US$69/bbl; supply remains good

Metals fell, while adverse weather effects drove up soft commodities

Gold fell in November 2024

  • We had a 5% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$2,650/oz t
  • After a great rally, part of the fall in the gold price is likely due to profit-taking before the year-end

All currencies have weakened >25% against Gold in 2024YTD

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa
  • The US$ weakened the most against gold in November 2024

It’s been the best year for gold in decades

Central banks now hold 12% of global gold reserves, the highest level since the 1990s

Large US growth stocks have been the best in the past decade at 16.5% p.a.

Oil from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela re-branded as Malaysian and sold to China

The end of the US$ is not near, it’s still used in 19% of global payments

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 1.9%

Since inception, the strategy was up 9.8% and 6.9% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In November 2024, the strategy was up 1.9%, which was 0.1% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • Global Bonds were slightly up
  • Our 5% tilt to World Financials did great
  • Our World Equity fund outperformed the index
  • World REIT was better than Global Bonds
  • Gold dragged

Strong performance

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 0.4%

Since inception, the strategy was up 48.3% and 16.8% above a 60/40 portfolio

In November 2024, the strategy was up 0.4%, which was 2.2% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% target weight to the US did great
  • Our 25% allocations to Gold and Global Bonds were a drag on performance

Strong performance

  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return than 60/40 except in the past 6 months and November 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 1.0%

Since inception, the strategy was up 5.3% and 6.3% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 3.5% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

  • We had a moderate equity target allocation at 68%, which led to a lag as World Equity rose

In November 2024, the strategy was up 1.0%, which was 1.6% below with the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our World Equity fund outperformed the index
  • Our big tilt to Infrastructure did well too
  • Our big tilts to Healthcare, Gold, and Global Bonds did poorly

Strong performance

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy