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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – July 2025

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in July 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • Tech-heavy NASDAQ was strong, while NYSE was flat
  • Japan was strong, too
  • And so was China, A-shares were best
  • Europe was up a bit, too

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

US-EU deal ends with 15% tariffs on most EU goods

US-EU trade deal is about optics

  • The EU imported US$420n worth of energy in 2024, and only about 15% of that came from the US
  • So, the EU is unlikely to buy US$750bn worth of US energy before 2028

US-China trade truce extended 90 days

ECB kept rates unchanged at 2%

Fed held rates unchanged to Trump’s dismay

US$139bn in leveraged ETFs, the highest amount in history

World Equity gained 1.1% in July

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • Progress on various US trade deals made trade war less likely, and stocks were up

Global Bonds fell 0.3% in July 2025

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • ECB kept rates steady, and the Fed is expected to do the same, which held back bond returns (bond prices and yields move opposite)

Commodities continued up in July 2025

  • We had no allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed July at US$70/bbl versus US$66/bbl in June

  • US-EU trade deal and general strong demand led to higher oil prices

Energy was the strongest

  • Livestock was strong too, as cattle prices reached new all-time highs

Gold was flat in July 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$3,290/oz t
  • There is still geopolitical uncertainty, but July remained relatively stable, which was reflected in the gold price

Only US$ strengthened against Gold in July 2025

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 0.4%

Since inception, the strategy up 11.6% and 6.3% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In July 2025, the strategy was up 0.4%, which was 0.2% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our 5% tilt to Financials did great
  • Our tilts to Infrastructure and Gold were below  World Equity
  • TIPS and the Money Market did better than Global Bonds

The strategy has underperformed a 40/60 portfolio by 1.3% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 1.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 1.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 56.9% and 20.9% above a 60/40 portfolio

In July 2025, the strategy was up 1.3%, which was 0.9% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocation to Developed Europe did well, while Emerging Markets ex China performed on par with World Equity
  • Our 25% target allocation to Gold dragged on performance, but beat Global Bonds

The strategy has underperformed a 60/40 portfolio by 0.4% 2025YTD

  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return than 60/40
  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 0.2%

Since inception, the strategy was up 10.1% and 7.9% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 4.5% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In July 2025, the strategy was up 0.2%, which was 0.2% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 15% tilt to Financials did great
  • However, Europe Small Caps and Precious Metals Miners dragged on performance

The strategy has added 2.3% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio in 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.5% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy