Skip to content
Learning that drives better investment decisions

A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – August 2025

| |

The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in August 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US was up
  • Japan saw strong gains
  • China A-shares saw massive gains, while Hong Kong fell
  • Europe fell slightly

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

Overwhelming US dominance in corporate profits

US M2 money supply jumps to a new all-time high

US gov’t deficit at US$291bn in July

AI takes over office workers

Trump taking control of the Fed

China’s trade surplus hits record high

Gold hits new all-time high

World Equity continued up in August

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • The AI momentum continued
  • Trump’s tariffs were deemed unlawful, but it’s not over yet

Global Bonds gained slightly in August

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • Expectations about a coming Fed rate cut drove up the Global Bonds fund

Commodities fell slightly in August

  • We had no target allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed August at US$64/bbl versus US$70/bbl in July

  • Oil became cheaper as supply remained ample

Energy dragged down Commodities in August 2025

  • However, softs and precious metals gained

Gold gained 2.4% in August 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$3,447/oz t
  • Continued uncertainty around Trump’s actions and expectations about a coming Fed rate cut drove up the price

All currencies have weakened >15% against Gold 2025YTD

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 0.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 12.0% and 5.3% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In August 2025, the strategy was up 0.3%, which was 1.1% below the 40/60 portfolio

  • Gold was strong
  • Global Bonds did well
  • Our 5% tilts to Financials and  Info. Tech. underperformed
  • The World Equity fund we use in the strategy underperformed

The strategy has underperformed a 40/60 portfolio by 2.4% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 1.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 1.7%

Since inception, the strategy was up 59.6% and 21.4% above a 60/40 portfolio

In August 2025, the strategy was up 1.7%, which was 0.1% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocations to Developed Europe and Emerging markets ex China underperformed
  • Our 25% allocation to Gold did well
  • Performance was helped by 5% allocations in China and Japan

The strategy has added 0.5% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024
  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return in all periods

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 3.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 13.7% and 9.8% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 3.6% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In August 2025, the strategy was up 3.3%, which was 1.7% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 15% tilt to Precious Metals Miners outperformed massively
  • Healthcare did well, too
  • Europe Small Caps, Infrastructure, and Financials dragged
  • The World Equity fund we use underperformed

The strategy has added 4.1% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.5% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy