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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – June 2025

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in June 2025

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US recovered, and tech-heavy NASDAQ was the strongest
  • Japan was up too
  • China saw big gains
  • Europe was down slightly

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

Tech has driven global stocks

US Small Caps underperformance vs. Mega Tech at its worst ever

Emerging Markets have massively underperformed the US

US M2 money supply hit a record US$22trn

US$ has weakened significantly

Gold’s share of global reserves reached a 30-year high of 23%

World Equity gained 3.7% in June

  • The strategy has a core target allocation of 20%
  • Progress towards a resolution of the US-China trade war led to a continued recovery in June 2025

Global Bonds gained 1.0% in June 2025

  • The strategy has a core allocation to Global Bonds; the current target allocation is at 45%
  • Worsened economic outlook in the US led to expectations of sooner rate cuts, pushing bond yields down and bond returns up

Commodities continued up in June 2025

  • We had no allocation to Commodities

WTI oil closed June at US$66/bbl versus US$61/bbl in May

  • Oil prices rose due to increased US-Iran tensions

Energy was the strongest

  • Industrial metals have gained as US buyers try to stock up before any tariff hikes

Gold was flat in June 2025

  • We had a 10% target allocation to Gold
  • Gold closed the month at US$3,303/oz t
  • There is still geopolitical uncertainty, but some progress was made between US and China, and US and Iran

Only US$ and JPY weakened against Gold in June 2025

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard gained 1.4%

Since inception, the strategy was up 11.1% and 6.2% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In June 2025, the strategy was up 1.4%, which was 0.8% below the 40/60 portfolio

  • Our tilts to Infrastructure, Gold, and Financials underperformed World Equity
  • Global Bonds gained more than TIPS and the Money Market
  • Gold was flat

The strategy has underperformed a 40/60 portfolio by 1.4% 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 40/60 portfolio by 1.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy gained 1.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 54.8% and 19.6% above a 60/40 portfolio

In June 2025, the strategy was up 1.3%, which was 1.4% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% allocation to Emerging Markets ex China did great
  • Our 25% allocations to Developed Europe and Gold dragged on performance

The strategy has underperformed a 60/40 portfolio by 0.4% 2025YTD

  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return than 60/40 except in the past 3 months
  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 7.0% in 2024

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 1.5%

Since inception, the strategy was up 9.9% and 8.3% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 3.4% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In June 2025, the strategy was up 1.5%, which was 1.2% below the 60/40 portfolio

  • All our tilts underperformed World Equity
  • Weakest were Financials and Precious Metals Miners

The strategy has added 2.7% value compared to a 60/40 portfolio 2025YTD

  • The strategy beat a 60/40 portfolio by 3.5% in 2024

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy