Investment Strategy Made Simple

Will the global CPI slowdown continue?

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry discuss two chapters of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this third episode, they talk about mistake number three: Do you believe events are more predictable after the fact than before? And mistake number four: Do you extrapolate from small samples and trust your intuition?

An oil price surge would push end-2023 slightly higher than 4%, but only slightly because it takes a few months for an oil price rise to impact CPI. A US recession could quickly bring CPI below 4%.

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Dave joins Andrew again as he shares more about his good and bad investments, among other things.

In this episode of Investment Strategy Made Simple (ISMS), Andrew and Larry discuss a chapter of Larry’s book Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them. In this second episode of the series, they talk about mistake number two: Do you project recent trends indefinitely into the future?

Emerging Countries – China and Russia with stable rates, LT rates up only slightly, yield curve inversion less severe except Russia.

Developed Countries – Vast DM Country increases in ST and LT rates, Japan stays an outlier, US looks worst based on yield curve inversion.

Developed Market Regions – ST rates about to peak, LT rates are falling, inverted yield curve in DM Americas and Europe widened. Emerging Market Regions – Massive ST rate hikes in ME&A and Frontier, LT rates more stable, no yield curve inversion in Asia.

World – End of DM ST rate rise, inverted yield curves remain, high rates in EM.

Is global CPI going to follow the US CPI slowdown?