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A. Stotz All Weather Strategies – October 2024

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The All Weather Strategy is available in Thailand through FINNOMENA. If you’re interested in our allocation strategy, you can also join the Become a Better Investor Community. Please note that this post is not investment advice and should not be seen as recommendations. Also, remember that backtested or past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What happened in world markets in October 2024

Performance of the World stock markets

  • US fell; the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell less
  • Japan was up
  • China was mixed; Hong Kong did the worst
  • Europe was down more than the US

Find the updated Performance of the World stock markets here.

World Equity was down in October

  • In 2024YTD, global stocks gained 16.4%
  • Worsened economic outlook led to stocks suffering

Global Bonds fell in October 2024

  • Expectations about slower rate cuts from the Fed led to rising yields, and lower bond prices

Commodities gained slightly in October

WTI oil closed October at US$70/bbl

  • Demand appears to have stagnated, while supply remains good

Livestock and Precious metals drove commodities in October 2024

Gold was the best performer in October

  • Gold closed the month at US$2,744/oz t
  • Gold set new ATHs due to continued geopolitical uncertainty

All currencies have weakened >30% against Gold in 2024YTD

  • Typically, a stronger US$ means a lower Gold price in US$ and vice versa

Global money supply has risen by US$7.3 trillion in 2024

S&P 500’s profit margin at an all-time high

China sees record drop

  • Following a record return week before the golden week in China, as stock markets reopened, Chinese stocks saw a record fall

China remains deflationary

  • The Chinese Economy has seen prices contract for 5 straight quarters, the longest decline in 25 years

Central banks hold record gold reserves

  • Central banks now hold 12.1% of global gold reserves, the highest level since the 1990s

Gold hits another ATH

  • Gold hit US$2,800/oz t in October
  • So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades

Performance review: All Weather Inflation Guard

All Weather Inflation Guard fell 0.8%

Since inception, the strategy was up 7.7% and 6.6% above a 40/60 portfolio

  • The strategy has also experienced less volatility

In October 2024, the strategy was down 0.8%, which was 2.1% above the 40/60 portfolio

  • Global Bonds fell in October
  • Our 5% allocations to Gold, Financials, and Info. Tech. did great
  • Our World Equity fund outperformed
  • Our 5% allocation to REITs dragged

Strong performance

Performance review: All Weather Strategy

All Weather Strategy fell 0.3%

Since inception, the strategy was up 47.7% and 19.5% above a 60/40 portfolio

In October 2024, the strategy was down 0.3%, which was 2.3% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our 25% target allocation to Gold did great
  • Our 25% allocations to US equity did OK, while Global Bonds did poorly

Strong performance

  • The strategy has had a higher risk-adjusted return than 60/40 except in the past 6 months

Performance review: All Weather Alpha Focus

All Weather Alpha Focus gained 0.5%

Since inception, the strategy was up 4.3% and 7.9% above a 60/40 portfolio

And 0.4% below World Equity, but with a lot less volatility

In October 2024, the strategy was up 0.5%, which was 3.1% above the 60/40 portfolio

  • Our big tilt to Gold did great; our 3% tilt to Miners did even better
  • Our World Equity fund outperformed
  • Our tilts to Infrastructure, Global Bonds, and Healthcare dragged on performance

Strong performance

DISCLAIMER: This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article.

Posted in All Weather Strategy